Stochastic Weather Routing Based on Information on the Accuracy of Forecasted Ocean Environments - Simulation Studies to Verify the Effectiveness of Stochastic Routing

Hideki Hagiwara and Ruri Shoji

Abstract:	In carrying out ship weather routing, it is very informative for the shipmaster if the standard deviations of predicted passage time and fuel consumption on the recommended route can be estimated at the departure time. These quantities provide the shipmaster with the degree of uncertainties of the arrival time and the fuel consumed during the voyage. In this study, the accuracy of forecasted ocean environments is represented as the covariance matrices of the forecast errors and the correlations between successive forecast errors. Based on these covariance matrices and correlations, a method of estimating the standard deviations of passage time and fuel consumption on a particular route is described. By performing numerous stochastic weather routing simulations, the accuracy of estimated standard deviations is verified and the effectiveness of stochastic routing is fully demonstrated.
Published in:	Proceedings of the IAIN World Congress and the 56th Annual Meeting of The Institute of Navigation (2000) June 26 - 28, 2000 The Catamaran Resort Hotel San Diego, CA
Pages:	151 - 161
Cite this article:	Hagiwara, Hideki, Shoji, Ruri, "Stochastic Weather Routing Based on Information on the Accuracy of Forecasted Ocean Environments - Simulation Studies to Verify the Effectiveness of Stochastic Routing," Proceedings of the IAIN World Congress and the 56th Annual Meeting of The Institute of Navigation (2000), San Diego, CA, June 2000, pp. 151-161.
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