A Glimpse into the Future: A Look at GNSS in the Year 2017

John W. Lavrakas

Abstract:	Today global navigation satellites systems are making plans for a very bright future. The Galileo program is poised to introduce its new satellite navigation system by the year 2010, offering five different levels of service. GLONASS is committed to updating its system with new M and K class satellites offering additional capabilities for civil users. The flagship satellite navigation system, Navstar Global Positioning System (GPS) is in the midst of being modernized to offer new signals and codes. Even China has announced plans to offer a world-wide satellite navigation service. The build-out plans show three, perhaps even four, brand new Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) in the next ten years. But how likely is this? What will service really be like in the year 2017? This paper considers what the GNSS services might look like 10 years from now. It presents three possible scenarios considering the three systems under active development: GPS, GLONASS, and Galileo. Scenario 1 explores the unlikely scenario that every project meets its projected dates. In this scenario, all three systems are fully operational, providing extensive interoperable services worldwide. GNSS users are awash with capability, having only to decide which service to select to best meet their needs. Scenario 2 considers the disastrous worst case" scenario in which all of the systems fail to achieve their schedules for service. In this scenario users are forced to live in a hybrid world, relying on no one system to meet all their needs for global, dual frequency, integrity assured operation. Scenario 3 examines a hypothetical "likely" scenario, in which the constellation makeup follows historical patterns for system development and deployment. GPS sustains its 24 satellite commitment, but fails to provide a full constellation having second and third civil frequencies. GLONASS also fields a full constellation but has experienced delays in modernizing their satellites and services. Galileo is delayed, but is finally able to complete its constellation offering a full suite of services. The purpose of this paper is to graphically illustrate the effects on users of meeting or not meeting intended goals. If races are to be won by the fleetest, this paper shows who might be the winners and losers in the race to win the hearts and minds of GNSS users. It is intended to provide food for thought for those involved in the process of designing and developing their systems for deployment over the next decade."
Published in:	Proceedings of the 2007 National Technical Meeting of The Institute of Navigation January 22 - 24, 2007 The Catamaran Resort Hotel San Diego, CA
Pages:	210 - 217
Cite this article:	Lavrakas, John W., "A Glimpse into the Future: A Look at GNSS in the Year 2017," Proceedings of the 2007 National Technical Meeting of The Institute of Navigation, San Diego, CA, January 2007, pp. 210-217.
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