Prior Probability Model Development to Support System Safety Verification in the Presence of Anomalies

Sam Pullen, Jason Rife and Per Enge

Abstract:	Assessments of “prior probabilities” of faults that must be mitigated are essential to integrity and safety verification for safety-critical systems. In the case of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) augmentations, many integrity threats come from faults within GNSS or anomalies in the atmosphere that are outside the control of the augmentation system designers. For a variety of reasons, including the rarity of the fault modes of concern, insufficient data exists to derive the fault probabilities directly from data without impractically-large confidence intervals. This paper addresses these concerns by illustrating a general approach derived from several recent examples in which data and judgment can be combined to produce usable and certifiable prior probabilities. Examples are shown for both Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite faults and ionosphere (atmospheric) anomalies.
Published in:	Proceedings of IEEE/ION PLANS 2006 April 25 - 27, 2006 Loews Coronado Resort Hotel San Diego, CA
Pages:	1127 - 1136
Cite this article:	Pullen, Sam, Rife, Jason, Enge, Per, "Prior Probability Model Development to Support System Safety Verification in the Presence of Anomalies," Proceedings of IEEE/ION PLANS 2006, San Diego, CA, April 2006, pp. 1127-1136. https://doi.org/10.1109/PLANS.2006.1650720
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