A Port-Level Model of Grounding Risk and Implications for Navigation Technologies

Hauke L. Kite-Powell, Johan Jebsen, Vassilis Papakonstantinou, Di Jin, Nicholas Patrikalakis

Abstract:	We formulate a model to predict the physical risk of navigational groundings during transits into and out of port, based on historical data. Information on factors surrounding groundings in five U.S. ports (Boston, New York/New Jersey, Tampa, Houston/Galveston, and San Francisco) between 1981 and 1995 is assembled and analyzed. U.S. Coast Guard casualty data and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers transit data are used to construct time series of underlying grounding rates for these ports. A variety of parameters are examined to determine whether they are meaningful “contributing factors” to the risk of grounding. We find that, although the data are far from perfect, it is possible to extract useful information from available data on historical grotmdings. Our preliminary results suggest implications for navigation infrastructure and equipment development. For example, most groundings occur near dredged channels, suggesting that the major practical problems of harbor navigation reside in the proper planning and execution of maneuvers in confined spaces. Wind speed and visibility conditions appear to be useful parameters in explaining the occurrence of groundings; historical groundings are associated with higher average wind speeds and lower average visibility than safe transits. On the other hand, uncertainty in hydrographic surveys, on which nautical charts are based, does not appear to contribute significantly to groundings in the ports we have studied. The results suggest that considerable benefit might be obtained from better real-time predictions of vessel track under alternative maneuvers (rudder and engine controls, use of tugs, etc.), given prevailing course and speed, and environmental conditions.
Published in:	Proceedings of the 1997 National Technical Meeting of The Institute of Navigation January 14 - 16, 1997 Loews Santa Monica Hotel Santa Monica, CA
Pages:	623 - 631
Cite this article:	Kite-Powell, Hauke L., Jebsen, Johan, Papakonstantinou, Vassilis, Jin, Di, Patrikalakis, Nicholas, "A Port-Level Model of Grounding Risk and Implications for Navigation Technologies," Proceedings of the 1997 National Technical Meeting of The Institute of Navigation, Santa Monica, CA, January 1997, pp. 623-631.
Full Paper:	ION Members/Non-Members: 1 Download Credit Sign In