Development of the Unified Risk Model For Evaluation of Current and Future Airspace

H. James Rome

Abstract:	This work develops and exploits the Unified Risk Model which is intended to supplant the Reich Collision Risk model. The new model is capable of evaluating collision risk vs. planned separation for both a system of parallel tracks and for crossing tracks, with or without intervention. Total risk can be expressed as a sum of individual contributions from various risk producing phenomena. The model is then applied to evaluating separation minima for the North Atlantic with current navigation, with and without ADS, and with GPS. With ADS and GPS, it appears that separation distances of 15 nm can be achieved for the organized track system, and intersection capacities can be increased 7 fold.
Published in:	Proceedings of the 1996 National Technical Meeting of The Institute of Navigation January 22 - 24, 1996 Loews Santa Monica Hotel Santa Monica, CA
Pages:	45 - 59
Cite this article:	Rome, H. James, "Development of the Unified Risk Model For Evaluation of Current and Future Airspace," Proceedings of the 1996 National Technical Meeting of The Institute of Navigation, Santa Monica, CA, January 1996, pp. 45-59.
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