Assessing Likelihoods of Earthquakes That Threaten SouthPAN Integrity

Brad Barakat, Jeremy Ovadia, Andrew Song, Eric Altshuler, Sean MacCallum

Peer Reviewed

Abstract:	The Southern Position Augmentation Network (SouthPAN), a satellite-based augmentation system (SBAS) covering Australia and New Zealand, relies on corrections based on a high-fidelity surveying of ground station positions. Earthquakes pose the threat of SBAS broadcasting corrections with hazardously misleading information (HMI) by permanently displacing ground stations farther from their baseline locations than current safety measures account for. This study assesses the likelihood of a significant geological shift of the SouthPAN ground stations following an earthquake by leveraging data collected over the span of 126 years to model the probabilities of the following: (1) a given-magnitude earthquake occurring in or around Australia and New Zealand and (2) the surface displacement caused by such an earthquake. The resultant likelihood curve will be critical in future HMI analyses that verify SouthPAN’s satisfaction of safety requirements during and after earthquakes.
Published in:	Proceedings of the ION 2026 Pacific PNT Meeting April 13 - 16, 2026 Hilton Waikiki Beach Honolulu, Hawaii
Pages:	641 - 654
Cite this article:	Barakat, Brad, Ovadia, Jeremy, Song, Andrew, Altshuler, Eric, MacCallum, Sean, "Assessing Likelihoods of Earthquakes That Threaten SouthPAN Integrity," Proceedings of the ION 2026 Pacific PNT Meeting, Honolulu, Hawaii, April 2026, pp. 641-654. https://doi.org/10.33012/2026.20594
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