Estimation of the Lateral Collision Risk of the North Pacific Routes

Osamu Amai and Sakae Nagaoka

Abstract:	The safety of the North Pacific (NOPAC) route system has been often evaluated using a collision risk model (Reich model). This paper describes the method and results of the estimation of the lateral collision risk based on a newly estimated lateral overlap probability which is a key parameter of the model. The lateral overlap probability was estimated from the empirical distribution of cross track deviations from the assigned route of the NOPAC route, namely R220. The radar track data obtained from air route surveillance radar (ARSR) and the traffic information extracted from the flight progress (flight plan) data were used for the analyses. The results obtained are as follows. (1) The estimated lateral overlap probability value for 100 NM of lateral separation, Py(100) is 2.4x10^-8. (2) The calculated lateral collision risk using the estimated lateral overlap probability value is 1.3x10^-9 [accidents/flying hour] and this is less than the target level of safety (TLS) of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), i.e., 2.0x10^-8 [fatal accidents/ flying hour].
Published in:	Proceedings of the 54th Annual Meeting of The Institute of Navigation (1998) June 1 - 3, 1998 The Adams Mark Hotel Denver, CO
Pages:	639 - 646
Cite this article:	Amai, Osamu, Nagaoka, Sakae, "Estimation of the Lateral Collision Risk of the North Pacific Routes," Proceedings of the 54th Annual Meeting of The Institute of Navigation (1998), Denver, CO, June 1998, pp. 639-646.
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