Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System for Space Weather Applications

R.W. Schunk, L. Scherliess, V. Eccles, L.C. Gardner, J.J. Sojka, L. Zhu, X. Pi, A.J. Mannucci, M. Butala, B.D. Wilson, A. Komjathy, C. Wang, G. Rosen

Abstract:	The Earth’s Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics (I-T-E) system is highly nonlinear and varies markedly on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Recently, we have created a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) that is based on data assimilation models, with the goal being to specify and forecast the global I-T-E system (Schunk et al., 2012). Our team has 7 first-principles-based data assimilation models for the ionosphere, ionosphere-plasmasphere, thermosphere, high-latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics, and mid-low latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics. Hence, we can conduct ensemble modeling of the I-T-E system with different data assimilation models and then compare model reconstructions, which should help distinguish between the underlying physics and model artifacts.
Published in:	Proceedings of the 2014 International Technical Meeting of The Institute of Navigation January 27 - 29, 2014 Catamaran Resort Hotel San Diego, California
Pages:	725 - 729
Cite this article:	Schunk, R.W., Scherliess, L., Eccles, V., Gardner, L.C., Sojka, J.J., Zhu, L., Pi, X., Mannucci, A.J., Butala, M., Wilson, B.D., Komjathy, A., Wang, C., Rosen, G., "Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System for Space Weather Applications," Proceedings of the 2014 International Technical Meeting of The Institute of Navigation, San Diego, California, January 2014, pp. 725-729.
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