Processing of GPS Station Data for Prediction Algorithm Analysis of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

F. van Graas, R. Kollar

Abstract:	Prediction of earthquakes using GPS station coordinates continues to be a challenge due to the relative accuracy of station coordinates, design of precursor algorithms and the tradeoff between missed and false detections. To enable the analysis of earthquake prediction algorithms, a high-quality data set was created using GPS measurement data from UNAVCO. Data were obtained for 11 stations that provided continuous raw measurements for 30 days before and 30 days after the Tohoku Earthquake of 11 March 2011, which had an epicenter approximately 70 km east of the Oshika Peninsula of Tohoku. The 11 stations were selected to be on different tectonic plates around the epicenter (GUAM, PIMO, MCIL, CCJ2, KSMV, AIRA, USUD, CHAN, KHAJ, YSSK, PETS). Processed station coordinates were also downloaded for three stations (USUD, CCJ2, YSSK) and compared to station coordinates derived from raw GPS measurement data using the Canadian Spatial Reference System (CSRS) Precise Point Positioning online processing tool. Differences were found between the UNAVCO and CSRS-derived stations coordinates as a function of time, that are significant at the level of position changes used for earthquake prediction algorithms. Data from the 11 stations were processed using different methods to evaluate the performance of different prediction algorithms, including normalized baseline length variations, normalized Delaunay triangle area variations, and an experimental cumulative sum of triangle area variations. Results are presented for both the UNAVCO and CSRS-derived station coordinates.
Published in:	Proceedings of the ION 2013 Pacific PNT Meeting April 23 - 25, 2013 Marriott Waikiki Beach Resort & Spa Honolulu, Hawaii
Pages:	62 - 68
Cite this article:	van Graas, F., Kollar, R., "Processing of GPS Station Data for Prediction Algorithm Analysis of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake," Proceedings of the ION 2013 Pacific PNT Meeting, Honolulu, Hawaii, April 2013, pp. 62-68.
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