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Session F11: Modeling and Simulation: Results of Strategic Studies

Scoping Analysis of PNT and Converged Effects Modeling in Force-on-Force Applications and Recent Operational Studies
Grant Bilker, Deepal S. Dooney, Thomas J Blenk Jr., Gregory S. Panas, and Paul C. Manz, Joint Program Executive Office Armaments and Ammunition; Zachary P. Zoller, and Robert Casale, US Army Development Command Analysis Center.
Location: Ballroom D
Date/Time: Wednesday, Jun. 4, 4:05 p.m.

Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) systems are foundational to modern military operations, underpinning critical functions such as situational awareness, precision targeting, and decision-making. Accurate modeling and simulation of PNT systems across various scales, from subsystem-level components to mission and campaign-level impacts, are vital for assessing operational effectiveness and informing the development of resilient, integrated systems. This paper conducts a comprehensive scoping analysis of the current state of PNT modeling within force-on-force simulation applications and identifying existing gaps and opportunities for advancement.
This paper begins with a review of major Army force-on-force analytical studies with direct or in-direct PNT dependencies and comparing how PNT was, or was not, incorporated. We examine the fidelity of PNT modeling and its significance within these analytical studies and infer possible variances on published conclusions based on findings. Building on this foundation, we investigate past integration challenges of PNT models with mission and campaign-level simulation environments. These models play a critical role in characterizing system-level performance, vulnerabilities, and potential mitigations, thereby informing performance at echelon. Convergence of PNT effects modeling with broader operational frameworks is essential for evaluating battlefield dynamics and platform effectiveness. This includes interfacing PNT systems with force-on-force simulations to assess their impact on operational outcomes, force effectiveness, and the decision-making processes of warfighters and commanders. Emphasis is placed on the challenges of achieving interoperability, environmental fidelity, and scalability in these integrated modeling efforts.
A comprehensive gap analysis is presented identifying key areas where current PNT and converged effects modeling fall short, such as in simulating the impacts of advanced threats, contested environments, and multi-domain operations. Recommendations are offered to bridge these gaps, including the development of more robust algorithms, improved environmental models, and enhanced tools and practices for assessing PNT impacts on mission success and operational resilience. Additionally, this paper assesses potential metrics that will help steer Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis (MS&A) in the right direction. Recommendations across model development, integration, tool selection, and analysis practices are presented for advancing PNT modeling and simulation capabilities to better meet the needs of warfighters and their commanders in modern and future conflict scenarios.
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. PAO Log #204-25, 17 Jan 2025

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